Prediction of temperature and precipitation in Sudan and South Sudan by using LARS-WG in future

作者: Chen H, Guo JL, Zhang ZX, Xu CY
成果类型: 期刊论文
数据来源: ESI SCIE
发表日期: 2013
年卷期页: 2013,113,(3-4),363-375
期刊名: 《THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY》 影响因子和分区 年份    影响因子    区号
2016    2.640        3区 2015    2.433        3区 2014    2.015        3区 2013    1.759        3区 2012    2.189        3区
缩写刊名: THEOR APPL CLIMATOL
英文关键词: STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; RAINFALL VARIABILITY; CHANGING RAINFALL; SAHEL RAINFALL; GREENHOUSE-GAS; ATLANTIC; ZONE; OSCILLATION; SCENARIOS
英文摘要: Global warming has brought great pressure on the environment and livelihood conditions in Sudan and South Sudan. It is desirable to analyze and predict the change of critical climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, which will provide valuable reference results for future water resources planning and management in the region. The aims of this study are to test the applicability of the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model in downscaling daily precipitation and daily maximum (Tmax) and daily minimum (Tmin) temperatures in Sudan and South Sudan and use it to predict future changes of precipitation; Tmin and Tmax for nine stations in Sudan and South Sudan are based on the SRA2 scenario of seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs for the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. The results showed that (1) the LARS-WG model produces good performance in downscaling daily precipitation and excellent performance in downscaling Tmax and Tmin in the study region; (2) downscaled precipitation from the prediction of seven GCMs showed great inconsistency in these two regions, which illustrates the great uncertainty in GCMs' results in the regions; (3) predicted precipitation in rainy season JJA (June, July, and August) based on the ensemble mean of seven GCMs showed a decreasing trend in the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099 in Sudan; however, an increasing trend can be found in SON (September, October, and November) in the future; (4) precipitation in South Sudan has an increasing trend in most seasons in the future except in MAM (March, April, and May) season in 2011-2030; and (5) predictions from seven GCMs showed a similar and continuous increasing trend for Tmax and Tmin in all three future periods, which will bring severe negative influence on improving livelihoods and reducing poverty in Sudan and South Sudan.
语言: English
出版类型: Article
主题: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
作者邮箱: chua@whu.edu.cn  
作者地址: [Chen, Hua; Guo, Jiali] Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China
[Chen, Hua; Zhang, Zengxin; Xu, Chong-Yu] Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway
[Zhang, Zengxin] Nanjing Forestry Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Forestry Ecol Engn, Nanjing 210037, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
基金支持数量: National Natural Science Fund of China [51279138]
Research Council of Norway [171783]
基金: The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Fund of China (51279138) and the Research Council of Norway with project number 171783 (FRIMUF). Metrological daily data were downloaded freely from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily database (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-daily/).
出版社: SPRINGER WIEN
出版地址: SACHSENPLATZ 4-6, PO BOX 89, A-1201 WIEN, AUSTRIA
参考文献: [0]Allen D.M., 2010, WATER RESOURCES RES, V46
[1] Alvi S. H., 1994, Geojournal, V33, P393
[2] Alvi SH, 1996, WATER INT, V21, P76
[3] Ayoub AT, 1999, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V10, P489, DOI 10.1002/(SICI)1099-145X(199909/10)10:5<489::AID-LDR336>3.0.CO
[4]2-U
[5] Bell MA, 2006, J CLIMATE, V19, P5343, DOI 10.1175/JCLI4020.1
[6] Biasutti M, 2008, J CLIMATE, V21, P3471, DOI 10.1175/2007JCLI1896.1
[7] Biasutti M, 2006, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V33
[8] CADET DL, 1987, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V113, P581, DOI 10.1256/smsqj.47608
[9] CAMBERLIN P, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P773, DOI 10.1002/joc.3370150705
[10] Caminade C, 2006, CLIM DYNAM, V26, P531, DOI 10.1007/S00382-005-0083-7
[11] Druyan LM, 2011, INT J CLIMATOL, V31, P1415, DOI 10.1002/joc.2180
[12] Elagib NA, 2011, INT J CLIMATOL, V31, P1377, DOI 10.1002/joc.2159
[13] Elagib NA, 2011, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V22, P505, DOI 10.1002/ldr.1023
[14] Elagib NA, 2010, AMBIO, V39, P413, DOI 10.1007/s13280-010-0042-3
[15] ELDREDGE E, 1988, J CLIMATOL, V8, P45
[16] ELTAHIR EAB, 1989, J HYDROL, V110, P323, DOI 10.1016/0022-1694(89)90195-9
[17] Fontaine B, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30
[18] Funk C, 2011, US GEOL SURV FACT SH, P1
[19] Goyal MK, 2012, HYDROL RES, V43, P215, DOI 10.2166/nh.2012.040
[20] Hashmi MZ, 2011, STOCH ENV RES RISK A, V25, P475, DOI 10.1007/s00477-010-0416-x
[21] Hulme M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P145, DOI 10.3354/cr017145
[22] Kamga AF, 2005, J GEOPHYS RES ATMOS, V110
[23] Kamga FM, 2001, J HYDROL, V252, P145
[24] Kim U, 2008, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V44, P1231, DOI 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00220.x
[25] Lamb P, 1978, TELLUS A, V30
[26] LAMB PJ, 1978, MON WEATHER REV, V106, P482, DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0482:CSOTAS>2.0.CO
[27]2
[28] Luo QY, 2010, CLIM RES, V42, P111, DOI 10.3354/cr00868
[29] Mariotti L., 2011, J GEOPHYS RES ATMOSP, V116
[30] Olsson J, 2012, HYDROL RES, V43, P341, DOI 10.2166/nh.2012.135
[31] Osman YZ, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1861, DOI 10.1002/joc.860
[32] Osman YZ, 2001, WATER INT, V26, P177
[33] PALMER TN, 1986, NATURE, V322, P251, DOI 10.1038/322251a0
[34] Peterson TC, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2837, DOI 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2837:AOOTGH>2.0.CO
[35]2
[36] Qian BD, 2005, CLIMATE RES, V29, P3, DOI 10.3354/cr029003
[37] RACSKO P, 1991, ECOL MODEL, V57, P27, DOI 10.1016/0304-3800(91)90053-4
[38] Segui PQ, 2010, J HYDROL, V383, P111, DOI 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.050
[39] Semenov MA, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P95, DOI 10.3354/cr010095
[40] Semenov MA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P397, DOI 10.1023/A:1005342632279
[41] Semenov MA, 2010, CLIM RES, V41, P1, DOI 10.3354/cr00836
[42] Wilby RL, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P530, DOI 10.1177/030913339702100403
[43] Xu CY, 2010, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V101, P397, DOI 10.1007/s00704-009-0225-7
[44] Xu CY, 1999, PROG PHYS GEOG, V23, P229, DOI 10.1177/030913339902300204
[45] Xu CY, 2005, ADV ATMOS SCI, V22, P789, DOI 10.1007/BF02918679
[46] Zhang ZX, 2012, STOCH ENV RES RISK A, V26, P429, DOI 10.1007/s00477-011-0512-6
全文链接:
相关文献
作者其它文献
My JSP 'reqreturndiv.jsp' starting page